Case study
Black Swan
Spot the unexpected.
A fragility coach for surprises — log shocks, classify them as Black Swan or deliberate with on-device Core ML, build mitigation buffers, and watch your fragility score fall over weeks. Private by design.
The challenge
Journals don’t prepare you for shocks.
Most journaling apps capture feelings. Few help you reduce downside before the next surprise — money, work, health, relationships — in a practical weekly ritual.
Black Swan needed to turn Taleb’s idea into a habit: classify events, get a mitigation plan, tick protections off, and see fragility themes shift over time — without sending notes to the cloud.
The solution
Log. Classify. Buffer. Review.
Events are classified on-device with Core ML (manual override when you disagree). Apple Intelligence can explain and suggest mitigations when available, with offline fallbacks. Pre-mortems and weekly reviews close the loop.
A fragility score breaks exposure down by theme so you know where to build buffers next — not just what already happened.
- Black Swan vs Deliberate event classification
- On-device Core ML with confidence scores
- Mitigation checklists and pre-mortem plans
- Fragility score with theme breakdown
- Weekly review ritual — focus, wins, open actions
Screenshots
App Store screenshots.
Outcome
A practical habit for limiting downside.
Black Swan is live on the App Store — private on-device processing, no data collected.
It shows how I approach conceptually dense products: one clear loop, strong privacy defaults, and just enough AI to assist — never to own the user’s notes.
